Potential

Potential is the level a player could reach at his peak, as distinct from his current ability. It is what a club is buying when it signs a teenager.

Cricketers develop on a curve. Most batters peak somewhere in their late twenties to early thirties, fast bowlers a little earlier and spinners often later, and the climb from promising to established takes years of first-class and franchise cricket. A player's ceiling limits that climb: two 19-year-olds with the same ratings today may be a future international and a future club pro. Scouts look for the things that do not show in the scorecard, such as technique under pressure, bowling speed and the temperament to keep improving.

For a manager, potential is the cheapest value available. A young player costs a fraction of an established one at the auction and can be retained cheaply, but he needs matches and training to grow, and he will fail while he learns. The bet is that a season of patience produces the player you build around, while the veteran you overpaid slides past his peak.

In Masterstroke: every player has a ceiling. A teenager you back for three seasons becomes the player you build around, retirees are replaced by academy prospects, and some of them are worth waiting for.